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Prediction for CME (2026-06-03T07:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-06-03T07:23Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/46596/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo to the north/northwest in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 imagery, and to the northeast in STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an M7.7 flare from Active Region 14455 (N14W13) starting around 2026-06-03T07:00Z as seen in SDO AIA 131/171/194/304, GOES SUVI 131/171/195/284/304 imagery, and STEREO A EUVI 195/304 imagery. A large ejecta is associated with this event which is deflected to the northwest. Additionally, an EUV wave is observed moving northwest of the eruption site, as seen in SDO AIA 171/193 and GOES SUVI 171/195/284 imagery. L1 arrival is likely to be 3 merged CMES 2026-06-03T11:48Z, 2026-06-03T07:23Z, 026-06-03T01:53Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-06-05T04:23Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-06-05T23:00Z (-6.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 
Radial velocity (km/s): 766
Longitude (deg): 34W
Latitude (deg): 51N
Half-angular width (deg): 53

Notes: Second CME from AR4455, following the M7.9 flare at 03/0700 UTC, which produced a partial halo CME. A reasonable fit, focused on the faint, large halo rather than the denser matter heading north. YF
Space weather advisor: Alister McHardy

Lead Time: 31.72 hour(s)
Difference: -18.62 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2026-06-03T20:40Z

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